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Mark's Notebook
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One of the nice parts about heading toward middle age is that you can find all your favorite music in the bargain bin.
- Ken Floyd
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URDC Top 15 Predictions 2005 - Results
Wednesday 27 July 2005, 6:39 pm
Keywords: Round Dancing
Here are the actual URDC Top 15 for 2005, compared with our
predictions:
Actual Top 15
15 - Hola Chica
15 - Cavatina
14 - Chilly Chilly Cha*
13 - The Old House*
11 - Java Jive
11 - Jack Is Back
9 - Sleeping Beauty
9 - Orient Express
6 - Adeline
6 - Boulavogue*
6 - Beyond
5 - Smoke Gets In Your Eyes
4 - Beale Street Blues
3 - Jurame
2 - Papillon
1 - And I Love You So
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Our Predictions
Adeline
All That Jazz
And I Love You So
Beale Street Blues
Begin To Color Me
Boom Boom*
Cavatina
Chilly Chilly Cha*
Dark Waltz*
I'm Still Me*
Jack Is Back
Jurame
Liebestraum No. 3
Orient Express
Papillon
Sleeping Beauty
Symphony
Warm and Willing
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* Denotes dances that are new in the Top 15 this year.
We missed these dances entirely:
- Hola Chica
- The Old House
- Java Jive
- Boulavogue
- Smoke Gets In Your Eyes
Our performance this year really sucked. Last year we were able to
predict 14 of the Top 15, missing only Beale Street Blues. The new
dances are the hardest to predict. In 2003 we were able to predict
13 of the Top 15.
Hola Chica and Smoke Gets In Your Eyes also ranked high on our lists,
but not high enough.
One reason that the Top 15 is hard to predict is that our raw data
does not include actual vote counts for the various events we tally.
For example, I might know that "Papillon" was done at 15 different
events, but I don't know how many votes it received at each of
those events. The best I can know is that "Papillon" was in, say,
the Top 7 at Bill and Carol Goss's week at McCloud, or it was in
the Top 24 at Kay and Joy Read's week at McCloud.
If I were willing to do a factor analysis of all our tallies, I could
probably figure out which events most accurately predict the URDC
Top 15. But that's more work than I'm willing to do right now.
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Last updated Tuesday 13 May 2008
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