Mark's Notebook

URDC Top 15 Predictions 2005

[NOTE: modified Monday 11 July 2005]

Last year, Al Mulzet and I had a little contest to see who could more accurately predict the URDC Top 15 of 2004. Al won by one point, but only because the list I posted to the web site did not match the list that I sent to Al in email. Had I posted my correct predictions, we would have tied. In any case, we both failed to predict the surprise entry of "Beale Street Blues," the new and popular Jive by Al and Carol Lillefield.

Al and I have entirely different strategies for making these predictions.

Al uses a combination of last year's URDC program, last year's Top 15, current URDC "favorites," a favorite festival of his that is hosted by several cuers from different parts of the country, and his own biases about which dances are good.

I like to go "strictly by the numbers" and not use any subjective measures like my own favorites. I do take all the URDC "favorites" lists into account. I also try to keep every dance program I can get my hands on. This year, that includes two events from California, and one each from North Carolina, Maryland, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, and Washington DC. I try to arrive at a composite figure based on how many times a dance appeared on a dance program and how many times it was taught during the last year.

Every year we try to improve our accuracy, and this year we decided to put our heads together. So here is our alphabetical list of the dances from which we believe the Top 15 will come. We think it's absolutely impossible to exactly predict the Top 15, so we always choose a few more than 15 dances, usually 18-19. This year we have selected 18 dances:

• Adeline
• All That Jazz
• And I Love You So
• Beale Street Blues
• Begin To Color Me
• Boom Boom
• Cavatina
• Chilly Chilly Cha
• Dark Waltz
• I'm Still Me
• Jack Is Back
• Jurame
• Liebestraum No. 3
• Orient Express Foxtrot
• Papillon
• Sleeping Beauty
• Symphony
• Warm and Willing

(This year I must make one disclaimer. Since last year I typed things up incorrectly, this year I reserve the right to change this list at any time before URDC should Al or I determine that I've made an error in posting it.) [NOTE: already fixed the first error on July 11.]

On average, every year the Top 15 includes 11 dances that have been in the Top 15 before, although not necessarily the previous year. Each Top 15 also includes, on average, four new dances that have never been in the Top 15 before. (This is explained in only slightly more detail on my Top 15 page.) In 2005, by our predictions, the new dances will be:

• Boom Boom, Phase 5 Cha Cha/Merengue by Ron and Ree Rumble
• Chilly Chilly Cha, Phase 6 Cha Cha by Kenji and Nobuko Shibata
• Dark Waltz, Phase 6 Waltz by Debby and Tim Vogt
• I'm Still Me, Phase 6 Waltz by Kay and Joy Read

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Last updated Tuesday 13 May 2008